COVID-19 v. Black Lives Matter
At the beginning of October, I contracted COVID-19, and it almost certainly came from my trip to the 2020 Commitment March in Washington DC. This is my story.
I have been sitting on this for a while, since I wasn’t sure if I had anything to add to the “viral” narrative. I took every precaution during my travel. I saw no friends. Sat at no restaurants. Even convinced my sister not to join me from NYC to minimize points of geographical contact. By the time I returned to Massachusetts, I’d only encountered a single other person.
I still got it.
Honestly, I was a little scared. I’ve carried pretty nasty asthma my entire life, so I knew if this got bad, it could then get worse. I reflected. A lot. Initially, about my entire life, though, fatalism? Not my style. I focused instead on the moment and on one question: was the trip worth it?
The reality is, no matter how many safety precautions are in place, how many temperatures are taken or masks are handed out, a mass gathering of people crowded into one place, breathing the same air — inside or out — is a nesting bed for sicknesses like COVID-19. One recently updated New York Times article actually tried to grapple with the moral quandary of protests during a pandemic. As the article describes, epidemiologists and public health officials in the scientific community decried the anti-lockdown protests that popped up across the country toward the end of spring, noting the protests philosophically as well as physically irresponsible. Many staunchly agreed, as the Center for Disease Control (CDC) guided, that large group gatherings were best avoided. If anything, they said, these protests would only lead to surges in infection rates.
Then George Floyd was killed.
Suddenly, the same experts and officials who were shaking their heads at one gathering were by in large supporting another — at least in principle. In practicality, several worried, despite various news outlets telling us otherwise (something the article in question does briefly address), that these impassioned BLM protests would ultimately fuel more COVID cases. I was really sad to discover that their worries were probably well-placed.
A peer-reviewed study published in Oxford’s Journal for Public Health set out to identify the “relationship of George Floyd protests to increases in COVID-19”. From the research:
Eight US cities were studied in which protestors in the tens of thousands were reported. Only cities that reside in states whose stay-at-home orders had been rescinded or expired for a minimum of 30 days were included in the sample to account for impact of growth rates solely due to economies reopening. Event study methodology was used with a 30-day estimation period to examine whether growth in COVID-19 infection rates was significant.
From my reading of it, the researchers don’t seem to make any statement about the morality of the George Floyd protests. They simply use available data to determine how much, if any, of COVID’s growth rate can be directly attributed to the protests, and then, if so, what specifically about the protests is the most likely contributing factor. Spoiler alert, in six of the eight cities, the protests had a positive and statistically significant — meaning the result is unlikely due to chance — impact on the cities-in-question’s infection growth rates. The culprit, these authors deduced, was proximity. While the vast majority of George Floyd protesters differentiated themselves from the anti-lockdown protesters by wearing masks and being generally conscious of CDC guidelines, few at these massive gatherings, if any at all, could effectively practice social distancing. Although a systematic review has corroborated the widely held belief that transmission of this disease lessens when outdoors versus indoors, it is an unfortunate fact that common elements of a big protest, such as its duration and frequency of personal contact, are associated with outdoor reports of coronavirus infection.
Like so many of us I’m sure, I am still grappling with the morality of large protests for necessary racial justice weighed against the assured spreading of COVID-19 at those protests, responsible as they try to be. That said, I’m certain my outlook on the “worth-it” question now is colored by my experience in the weeks after my diagnosis. Because the truth is, my COVID experience was blessedly uneventful.
When I returned to my home from D.C., I immediately quarantined for three days until I could get a test. I took the test, got my positive results within 24 hours, panicked for a smidge and, preparing for the worst, started my lock-down quarantine. My roommate did the same. A contact tracer, Layton (great guy), called me every other day to check on my symptoms. Here’s the kicker — beyond a mildly scratchy throat, I came down with not-a-one.
So, was it worth it? For me, absolutely. However, that glowing endorsement shoulders big caveats. All the people I contacted, including the person I literally share an apartment with, never got positive COVID results. Eventually, I got my negative one. I swam to the surface of infection safe and sound. This is not everyone’s story. As such, with the dawn of 2020’s final political battle in Georgia upon us, please remember — in this moment of great existential threat, the frontlines are not for everyone. Don’t show out if you don’t feel safe doing so. Donate to a cause. Call your representatives. Drink some water. Educate yourself.
And vote. For all that is good, vote. Vote now and forever, or at least the next 50 years. Vote for a future where we don’t have to risk our lives to fight for our lives.
